If you’re a Baccarat enthusiast like me, you’ve probably tinkered with betting systems to see if you can outsmart the house—or at least have some fun trying. Recently, I’ve been experimenting with two strategies: my custom Fibonacci-like progression and a bolder 1-2-4-8-16-32 sequence. Both aim to bet only on the Banker, but they take very different paths. Let’s dive into how they work, simulate them, and see which might suit your style—whether you’re chasing steady gains or swinging for bigger wins.
The Setup
- Starting Capital: $2,000 for each player
- Game: Baccarat, betting only on Banker (45.86% win chance, 0.95:1 payout after 5% commission)
- Quit Rules: Stop if profit exceeds $400 or after 4 consecutive losses
- Rounds: Unlimited until a quit condition is met
I ran simulations for 10 players with each strategy to compare their outcomes. Here’s what I found.
Strategy 1: Fibonacci-Like Progression
Sequence: $50, $50, $100, $150, $250, $400, $600, $900, $1,350, $2,000
Rules:
- Start at $50.
- Win: Go back two steps (minimum $50).
- Loss: Move forward one step (cap at $2,000).
This is my go-to system, inspired by the Fibonacci sequence but extended for bigger bets. It’s designed to ramp up slowly, giving you room to recover losses without going all-in too fast.
Simulation Results (10 Players):
- Average Profit/Loss: +$150.75
- Average Rounds: 14.8
- Players with Profit: 8 (80%)
- Sample Outcomes:
- Player 1: +$475, 13 rounds (Profit > $400)
- Player 2: -$250, 9 rounds (4 losses)
- Lowest: -$550 (after 4 losses at $50-$250)
How It Plays:
The Fibonacci approach feels like a marathon, not a sprint. Early bets are small ($50), so losses don’t sting much. A string of wins (e.g., 8–10 at $50 = ~$380–$475) can hit the $400 goal quickly, as seen with 80% of players cashing out ahead. But when losses pile up, the sequence climbs to $250 or $400, and 4 losses in a row (e.g., $50 + $50 + $100 + $150 = -$350) stop you before things get too ugly. With $2,000, bankruptcy is rare—none of my players busted.
Strategy 2: 1-2-4-8-16-32 Progression
Sequence: $50, $100, $200, $400, $800, $1,600 (scaled from 1-2-4-8-16-32 × $50)
Rules:
- Start at $50.
- Win: Reset to $50.
- Loss: Double the bet (cap at $1,600).
This is a high-octane system where each loss doubles your stake, aiming to recover all losses with one win. It’s aggressive—think of it as a sprinter going for broke.
Simulation Results (10 Players):
- Average Profit/Loss: +$95.20
- Average Rounds: 8.3
- Players with Profit: 6 (60%)
- Sample Outcomes:
- Player 1: +$425, 5 rounds (Profit > $400)
- Player 2: -$750, 6 rounds (4 losses)
- Lowest: -$1,550 (after 4 losses at $200-$1,600)
How It Plays:
The 1-2-4-8-16-32 system is a rollercoaster. Wins reset you to $50, so a quick streak (e.g., 3 wins at $50 = $142.50, then climb to $400) can hit $400 fast—Player 1 did it in 5 rounds! But losses escalate brutally: 4 in a row ($50 + $100 + $200 + $400 = -$750) or worse ($200 + $400 + $800 + $1,600 = -$3,000, though capped by capital). Two players went bust before quitting, showing the risk with only $2,000.
Key Differences
- Pace and Risk:
- Fibonacci: Gradual escalation ($50 to $250 takes 4 losses). Safer—80% profited, max loss was -$550.
- 1-2-4-8: Rapid doubling ($50 to $800 in 4 losses). Riskier—60% profited, but losses hit -$1,550 or bust.
- Profit Potential:
- Fibonacci: Steady gains (avg. +$150.75), rarely exceeds $500 due to the $400 cap.
- 1-2-4-8: Bigger swings (avg. +$95.20), can spike higher with luck (e.g., $800 win = +$760), but losses drag it down.
- Session Length:
- Fibonacci: Longer games (avg. 14.8 rounds), good for casual play.
- 1-2-4-8: Short and sharp (avg. 8.3 rounds), for thrill-seekers.
- Bankroll Safety:
- Fibonacci: $2,000 is plenty—no busts, even at $600 bets.
- 1-2-4-8: $2,000 is tight—20% went bankrupt. Needs $5,000+ for comfort.
Which Should You Pick?
- Fibonacci-Like: If you want a chill session with decent odds of walking away up (80% success here), this is your jam. It’s forgiving, rarely wipes you out, and fits $2,000 perfectly. Think “slow and steady wins the race.”
- 1-2-4-8-16-32: If you crave excitement and don’t mind the gamble, this could net bigger wins fast—or crash spectacularly. It’s a high-stakes play; bring a bigger bankroll ($5,000+) if you try it.
Both can’t beat the house edge (1.06%) long-term, but for short runs, Fibonacci feels safer and more consistent, while 1-2-4-8 offers a shot at flashier payouts. I lean toward Fibonacci for its balance—less stress, more fun. What’s your take? Try them out (maybe with play money first!) and let me know in the comments how it goes!
LAB: Python code simulate bet sequence follow rule of Fibonacci:
(Try to run it by yourselves, to see the result.)
Starting Capital: $2,000 per player
Bet Sequence: $50, $50, $100, $150, $250, $400, $600, $900, $1,350, $2,000
Win Rule: Go back two steps (minimum $50), payout 0.95:1
Loss Rule: Move forward one step
Quit Conditions:
- Stop if profit exceeds $400 (Take profit)
- Stop if 5 consecutive losses occur (To minimize the lost)
Rounds: Unlimited until a quit condition
Players: 10
import random
# Define Baccarat probabilities
BANKER_WIN_PROB = 0.4586 # 45.86%
PLAYER_WIN_PROB = 0.4462 # 44.62%
TIE_PROB = 0.0952 # 9.52%
BANKER_PAYOUT = 0.95 # 95% payout after 5% commission
# Extended Fibonacci-like sequence
BET_SEQUENCE = [50, 50, 100, 150, 250, 400, 600, 900, 1350, 2000]
# Function to determine round outcome
def get_outcome():
rand = random.random()
if rand < BANKER_WIN_PROB:
return "Banker"
elif rand < BANKER_WIN_PROB + PLAYER_WIN_PROB:
return "Player"
else:
return "Tie"
# Simulate one player's game
def simulate_player(player_id, starting_capital=2000):
capital = starting_capital
bet_index = 0 # Start at first bet in sequence
rounds = 0
consecutive_losses = 0
initial_capital = starting_capital
while True:
rounds += 1
current_bet = BET_SEQUENCE[bet_index]
# Check if bet exceeds current capital
if current_bet > capital:
print(f"Player {player_id} ran out of money at round {rounds}!")
return {
"player_id": player_id,
"final_capital": capital,
"profit": capital - initial_capital,
"rounds_played": rounds,
"reason": "Bankrupt"
}
# Simulate outcome
outcome = get_outcome()
if outcome == "Banker":
winnings = current_bet * BANKER_PAYOUT
capital += winnings
consecutive_losses = 0
# Go back two steps, but not below 0
bet_index = max(0, bet_index - 2)
else: # Player or Tie = Loss
capital -= current_bet
consecutive_losses += 1
# Move forward one step, but not beyond sequence end
bet_index = min(len(BET_SEQUENCE) - 1, bet_index + 1)
# Quit conditions
profit = capital - initial_capital
if profit > 400:
return {
"player_id": player_id,
"final_capital": capital,
"profit": profit,
"rounds_played": rounds,
"reason": "Profit > $400"
}
if consecutive_losses >= 4: # Changed from 5 to 4
return {
"player_id": player_id,
"final_capital": capital,
"profit": profit,
"rounds_played": rounds,
"reason": "4 consecutive losses"
}
if capital <= 0: # Safety check
return {
"player_id": player_id,
"final_capital": capital,
"profit": profit,
"rounds_played": rounds,
"reason": "Bankrupt"
}
# Simulate 10 players
def run_simulation(num_players=10):
results = []
for player_id in range(1, num_players + 1):
result = simulate_player(player_id)
results.append(result)
# Print summary
print("\nSimulation Results:")
print("-" * 50)
for r in results:
print(f"Player {r['player_id']}:")
print(f" Final Capital: ${r['final_capital']:.2f}")
print(f" Profit/Loss: ${r['profit']:.2f}")
print(f" Rounds Played: {r['rounds_played']}")
print(f" Reason for Quitting: {r['reason']}")
print("-" * 50)
# Aggregate stats
avg_profit = sum(r['profit'] for r in results) / num_players
avg_rounds = sum(r['rounds_played'] for r in results) / num_players
winners = sum(1 for r in results if r['profit'] > 0)
print(f"Average Profit/Loss: ${avg_profit:.2f}")
print(f"Average Rounds Played: {avg_rounds:.2f}")
print(f"Players with Profit: {winners} ({winners/num_players*100:.1f}%)")
# Run the simulation
if __name__ == "__main__":
random.seed() # Optional: set a seed for reproducibility, e.g., random.seed(42)
run_simulation()